2012 Betting Odds - One Month Out

So we're just a few short weeks away from Eurovision and the betting odds are more or less holding steady.

The predicted top 10, based on the current odds:

1.  Sweden
2.  Italy
3.  Russia
4.  Serbia
5.  UK
6.  Denmark
7.  Spain
8.  Ireland
9.  Iceland
10.  Germany

I'm happy that Italy and Spain are doing as well as they are.  Russia's high place is a bit surprising, although whether its due to sentimentality, bloc voting, or something else I'm not sure.  Expect to see Ireland move up over the coming weeks (Jedward shot up right before the finals last year).  I personally wouldn't mind seeing San Marino crack the Top 10, but that's just me, although a move into the Top 10 by perennial underdog Cyprus might not be that unheard of.  The big question though is still whether Loreen can hold on to the top spot.

Your thoughts?

Eurovision 2012 Preview: Pot 5

Just two more pots to go before moving onto our finalists!  This is our most random pot to date, and if anyone can see the pattern in the countries, please share...

Ireland
First Appearance:  1965
Highest Place:  1st (1970, 1980, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996)

Jedward - "Waterline"

The Crayola Twins are back for another shot at the prize.  And I can't believe I'm saying this, but....that song is really damn catchy.  Like humming all day catchy.  And if last year taught us anything, it's that they do know how to put on a show.  I really can't believe I'm gonna write this next part, but if they sing like this live and they put on a great performance, Jedward could be your new Eurovision champion.

Latvia
First Appearance:  2000
Highest Place:  1st (2002)

Anmary - "Beautiful Song"

A surprisingly restrained song that reminds me a bit of the Carrie Underwood and Taylor Swift version of pop country (am I the only one who hears a bit of a twang there?).  Simple, but unique, is frequently underrated but can definitely win people over ("Satellite" springs to mind) so I wouldn't be shocked if this winds up doing a lot better than the odds suggest.  Plus, the Anglophiles might be willing to throw it a few points for the references to Johnny Logan (three time Eurovision winner for Ireland), Mick Jagger, and Paul McCartney.

Lithuania
First Appearance:  1994
Highest Place:  6th (2006)

Donny Montell - "Love Is Blind"

The best part of this song is the somewhat unexpected shift between ballad to disco dance number, and the fact that his voice sounds good in both halves may win him some points (especially from the swooning female youth).  Don't expect a shocking win though.

Malta
First Appearance:  1971
Highest Place:  2nd (2002, 2005)

Kurt Calleja - "This Is the Night"

So, speaking of swooning female fans, Kurt Calleja seems poised to pick up more of those than even Tooji or his other young male pop star competitors.  Malta has been one of the most successful countries to never win Eurovision, although lately it hasn't been doing too well.  It's a long shot to win, but don't be surprised if this catchy pop song winds up making it into, and doing well, in the finals.  Bonus points for writing his own lyrics and music.

Portugal
First Appearance:  1964
Highest Place:  6th (1996)

Filipa Sousa - "Vida Minha"

Moving away from pop, we have Portugal's Fado entry.  Sousa certainly knows how to sing and truly captures the longing and melancholia of the genre (translation of the lyrics available here) .  If it sounds a bit familiar, the songwriter also wrote Portugal's 2008 entry "Senhora do mar (Negras aguas)" (also Fado) as well as entries for Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Unfortunately, it likely won't do as well as it probably deserves ("Senhora do mar" only came in 13th).  Interesting note, Portugal has never submitted a song other than in Portuguese.

Romania
First Appearance:  1994
Highest Place:  3rd (2005, 2010)

Mandinga - "Zaleilah"

I'd never heard a Latin dance song featuring a bagpipe until this (translation available here).  Soloist Elena Ionescu was advised by another Romanian singer to appear as naked on stage as possible in order to be remembered.  Frankly, it's upbeat and fun, which is really what dance and pop music is all about.  I must say, I'm a little sad that it beat out the Stephenie Meyer-inspired "Twilight" (and before you ask, that would not be the first Eurovision song about vampires).

My final thoughts?  Look for Jedward to make a dash for first, hopefully with Malta hot on their heels.

What is your favorite act from Pot 5?

Eurovision 2011: Wrap-up and Analysis

Well, cats and kittens, another edition of the Eurovision Song Contest is behind us, and what a long strange trip it's been.  From boy bands from the UK to Irish twins to Greek rappers, this year's contest has truly memorable.  Here's your intrepid hero's recap, thoughts, comments, and lessons we've learned.  And as always, there's plenty of videos.

No story about Eurovision 2011 can start without talking about the surprise winner.  In the weeks leading up to the competition, betting odds favored France, with the UK and Estonia playing spoiler.  Then, suddenly, along came the Crayola Twins from Ireland, Jedward, rocketing up to second place just behind the UK.  As of the morning of the Grand Finale, at least according to the bookies, the competition was between Blue and Jedward. Then what happened?  Jedward came in at 8th, Blue dropped to 11th, France came in at 15th, and Estonia tumbled down to 24th.  And our winner...Azerbaijan!! (??)  Here's your winner:  Ell & Nikki performing "Running Scared":

So what happened?  First and foremost, I'll go on record to say that the first time I heard this song, I thought it was nice, but nothing super special.  But as I've listened to it more and more, it's grown on me, a lot.  It's catchy, it's pretty, and they staged it well. But a closer look at the points reveals something.


[A note on Eurovision voting for those not in the know:  Each country votes on their favorite act, although a country cannot vote for itself.  The votes are  combined with a score from a panel of jurists from each country, and the highest scorer receives 12 points ("douze pointe" in French).  The next highest scorer gets 10, 8, etc....]

Azerbaijan only got 12 pwah pointe from three countries.  Four other acts, including Jedward, got three douze pwahs, Italy took home four, and Bosnia took home five.  This certainly wasn't the runaway of "Fairytale" from 2009, but even Lena last year captured nine douze pwahs.  Russia in 2008 captured seven, and Serbia in 2007 also took nine.  So what gives? Azerbaijan captured four 10s and and ten 8s.  Comparatively, second place Italy took home five 10s and only one 8.  Bosnia only took two 10s and one 8, while third place Sweden complemented its two douze pwahs with seven 10s.  Jedward on the other hand, only took two 10s, and in fact, only scored points from 17 countries.  Azerbaijan scored points from 30 countries. So it may not necessarily be that Azerbaijan, as nice as the song was, was everyone's clear favorite.  It's just that enough people liked it enough to win.  And while Jedward has the same number of high scores as Azerbaijan, it seemed more of a love it or hate it thing.  And that was probably their downfall.

So what else did we learn from Eurovision 2011?

1.  Celine Dion has returned to the Eurovision stage again.  Oh wait, no, it's just Kati Wolf from Hungary.  Our mistake.

Seriously, it's kind of creepy.  The way she holds the mic, the hair, the voice, the lip quiver.  Kati Wolf to Vegas?

We also believe she was robbed.  She deserved higher than 22nd.  She at least deserved higher than Finland.

2.  Azerbaijan turned it out.  Blue didn't. Say what you will about Ell & Nikki.  They hit their performance.  Blue on the other hand...it was...actually kind of sad, really.

Maybe had the vocals been there, perhaps it could have done better.  Instead it just sounded like a mediocre song by a boy band that's gotten a little too old for that title.  Oh wait...

3.  Iceland perhaps had the best story that nobody knows If you watched Iceland's performance, you'd probably be thinking, "What is this on my screen?"  But the story behind the performance is perhaps one of the most sadly under-reported story of the competition.  In January, Sigurjon "Sjonni" Brink passed away mere days before he was to perform this song in the Iceland national selection finals.  So his friends did what any group would do.  They scrambled together and decided to perform the song in Sjonni's honor.  They won in Iceland and placed 20th overall in Germany.

4.  Lena's a badass.  Seriously. Lena won handily last year with "Satellite," in the second largest margin of victory ever.  She was 18 at the time.

She returned this year to compete again.  And pulled out one hell of a performance, placing 10th overall.  We look forward to seeing if she'll try to win again in the future, but even if she doesn't, "Taken By a Stranger" will remain one of the best songs from 2011.

5.  Dana International got a raw deal Finally, speaking of former winners and being robbed, Dana International at least deserved to make it out of the semi-final.  It's a shame really, that Jedward and Eric Saade made it through the second semi-final, leaving her behind.  Especially Jedward.

Seriously.  Here's the live version if there's any doubt left in your mind.

And really, that brings us to the end.  There's more videos to talk about, to be sure, but at some point we have to draw a line.  At least for now.  Who knows?  Perhaps there will be more commentary to come.  Feel free to drop a comment with your own favorite songs, thoughts, or comments.

But for now, I'll sign off from Eurovision 2011 in the only appropriate way.  With Moldova.

Eurovision 2011: Preview

Well, today's the day, cats and ktitens.  The first semifinal of Eurovision 2011 will begin in a few hours and we can't be more excited.  And so without further ado, we present two of most compelling story lines from this year's competition and then what you really came for.

1.  The Return of Dana International

While many contestants have attempted to win Eurovision more than once, only Johnny Logan from Ireland has actually succeeded.  Two former winners will attempt the feat this year.  First is Germany's Lena, who, if she won, would be the first back to back winner.

However, the more compelling storyline may be Israel's Dana International, who won a very tight three way race in 1998 with her song "Diva."

Dana is arguably one of the most famous transsexual celebrities in the world.  When she was selected to represent Israel in 1998, many Orthodox Jews and other conservative groups attempted to void her participation.  Upon winning, Dana commented "My victory proves God is on my side. I want to send my critics a message of forgiveness and say to them: try to accept me and the kind of life I lead. I am what I am and this does not mean I don't believe in God, and I am part of the Jewish Nation."

2.  The End of the Big Four Curse

One of the critiques of Eurovision has traditionally been the problem of bloc voting; that is, countries that are politically aligned or share similar cultures will vote for each other, regardless of talent.  Since each country's vote is weighed the same, the largest countries (also known as "The Big Four/Five"), namely France, the UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy (recently added), were unable to garner enough votes to secure victories.

Recently, Eurovision has introduced a jury system designed to arguably limit the effects of bloc voting.  And perhaps it seems to be working.  Germany's Lena won last year, the first Big Four/Five winner since 1997.  And current betting odds (yes, you can bet on the Eurovision outcome) shows the most likely winner to be France, followed closely by the UK.

And that's enough for the stories.  You've really come here for the music, so let's take a look at some of this year's entries.

"Carobon" - Nina (Serbia)

We're a fan of the 60s vibe.  While it may not be Lordi, it's certainly fun.

"Popular" - Eric Saade (Sweden)

We didn't realize that Justin Bieber was competing.  Then again, if this means The Bieb will be staying in Europe and not returning to our side of the pond for a while, we approve.

"Rockefeller Street" - Getter Jaani (Estonia)

The song most likely to crash the UK/France fight for first.  It's catchy and it could have just enough girls, glitter, and pyrotechnics to send Blue packing.

"Lipstick" - Jedward (Ireland)

Every time I get a little faith in humanity, things like this happen.  And that's all I'm going to say about it.

"Sognu" - Amaury Vassilli (France)

The favorite to win.  Whether or not you're an opera fan, you've gotta be amazed...the kid's only 21.

And finally...

"In Love For a While" - Anna Rossinelli (Switzerland)

One of our hero's personal favorites.  It's one of those songs that just makes you feel happy.

You can check out all of the participant profiles and videos here.  Enjoy!