2012 Betting Odds - One Month Out

So we're just a few short weeks away from Eurovision and the betting odds are more or less holding steady.

The predicted top 10, based on the current odds:

1.  Sweden
2.  Italy
3.  Russia
4.  Serbia
5.  UK
6.  Denmark
7.  Spain
8.  Ireland
9.  Iceland
10.  Germany

I'm happy that Italy and Spain are doing as well as they are.  Russia's high place is a bit surprising, although whether its due to sentimentality, bloc voting, or something else I'm not sure.  Expect to see Ireland move up over the coming weeks (Jedward shot up right before the finals last year).  I personally wouldn't mind seeing San Marino crack the Top 10, but that's just me, although a move into the Top 10 by perennial underdog Cyprus might not be that unheard of.  The big question though is still whether Loreen can hold on to the top spot.

Your thoughts?

Eurovision 2012 Preview: Pot 2

Now that we've taken a brief look at Pot 1, let's take a look at Pot 2 for the 2012 Eurovision song contest. 

For those of you unaware, countries are divided into pots based on how those countries voted in the past and then the half of each pot competes in each semi-final.  Combining this with the critiques of block voting, it's easy to see why, for the most part, the countries in each Pot have similar demographics, including language and ethnicity.  While Pot 1 was made of states that were formerly part of Yugoslavia, today's Pot features Baltic and Scandanavian countries.

Denmark
First Appearance:  1957
Highest Place:  1st (1963, 2000)

Soluna Samay - "Should've Known Better"

Samay was born in Guatemala and did not emigrate to Denmark until 2000.  She is one of the youngest competitors, and her personal introduction, a capella singing, and use of her winning performance in Denmark all seems geared towards reaching the youth vote.  The song is catchy, she sings well, and I appreciate that she plays her own instruments.  While she has the whole hip, young superstar thing going (dare we say, we could totally see this as a winning song on American Idol), I do suggest that she gets a better outfit.  Current betting odds place her in the top 5.

Estonia
First Appearance:  1994
Highest Place:  1st (2001)

Ott Lepland - "Kuula"

Lepland won the Estonian version of Pop Idol and has the vocal talets to prove it.  Lepland certainly gets props for writing his own song (translation available here).  At first I was a bit bored, but to be honest, the more I listen to it, the more it grows on me.  I could see it either doing very well or falling into the bottom for just being "nice" (then again, Azerbaijan rode nice all the way to a win last year.)

Finland
First Appearance:  1961
Highest Place:  1st (2006)

Pernilla Karlsson - "Nar Jag Blundar"

A nice little minimalist piece from one of the youngest contestants.  It will probably grow on me, but I didn't necessarily like it or dislike it.  Interesting bit of trivia though:  The song, although from Finland, is sung in Swedish (translation available here).  Although Finnish is primarily spoken in Finland, Sweden is one of the two official languages of the country, and Swedish is the native language of 5.39% of of population.

Iceland
First Appearance:  1986
Highest Place:  2nd (1999, 2009)

Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - "Never Forget"

Is it me, or does Iceland seem to always send great songs year after year, and this is the second Icelandic guy/girl act in 5 years (Euroband competed in 2008).  There isn't much to complain about here (let's not get started on how beautiful the country is), and as a bonus, not only did Salóme write and compose the song, she plays the violin as well.  Not to be outdone, Jónsi competed for Iceland in 2004, placing 19th.  With so much success without winning, could this be Iceland's year? 

Norway
First Appearance:  1960
Highest Place:  1st (1985, 1995, 2009)

Tooji - "Stay"

The first of many high energy pop dance songs, this one featuring a former model and MTV host who certainly can dance and put on a show.  This is type of thing that audiences love and expect a high placement (it certainly worked for Eric Saade in 2011, who wound up in 3rd).  It's pretty infectious to boot.  Two bits of trivia:  Tooji was born in Iran but moved to Norway at the age of one, and he also co-wrote his own song.

Sweden
First Appearance:  1958
Highest Place:  1st (1974, 1984, 1991, 1999)

Loreen - "Euphoria"

Another dance number from the country that brought you Eurovision's most famous winners, Abba.  According to the betting odds, this is the clear favorite to win, and with its upbeat tempo and catchy lyrics, it's a pretty safe bet this will do well.  Interesting note, the producer for this song also produced "Stay" from Norway.  And one last thing:  Loreen, lose the house coat.  Seriously.

So there we have it, our second pot and there's not really a bad song in here.  While the odds are still in Sweden's favor, here's hoping this is Iceland's year.

What is your favorite act from Pot 2?

Eurovision 2011: Wrap-up and Analysis

Well, cats and kittens, another edition of the Eurovision Song Contest is behind us, and what a long strange trip it's been.  From boy bands from the UK to Irish twins to Greek rappers, this year's contest has truly memorable.  Here's your intrepid hero's recap, thoughts, comments, and lessons we've learned.  And as always, there's plenty of videos.

No story about Eurovision 2011 can start without talking about the surprise winner.  In the weeks leading up to the competition, betting odds favored France, with the UK and Estonia playing spoiler.  Then, suddenly, along came the Crayola Twins from Ireland, Jedward, rocketing up to second place just behind the UK.  As of the morning of the Grand Finale, at least according to the bookies, the competition was between Blue and Jedward. Then what happened?  Jedward came in at 8th, Blue dropped to 11th, France came in at 15th, and Estonia tumbled down to 24th.  And our winner...Azerbaijan!! (??)  Here's your winner:  Ell & Nikki performing "Running Scared":

So what happened?  First and foremost, I'll go on record to say that the first time I heard this song, I thought it was nice, but nothing super special.  But as I've listened to it more and more, it's grown on me, a lot.  It's catchy, it's pretty, and they staged it well. But a closer look at the points reveals something.


[A note on Eurovision voting for those not in the know:  Each country votes on their favorite act, although a country cannot vote for itself.  The votes are  combined with a score from a panel of jurists from each country, and the highest scorer receives 12 points ("douze pointe" in French).  The next highest scorer gets 10, 8, etc....]

Azerbaijan only got 12 pwah pointe from three countries.  Four other acts, including Jedward, got three douze pwahs, Italy took home four, and Bosnia took home five.  This certainly wasn't the runaway of "Fairytale" from 2009, but even Lena last year captured nine douze pwahs.  Russia in 2008 captured seven, and Serbia in 2007 also took nine.  So what gives? Azerbaijan captured four 10s and and ten 8s.  Comparatively, second place Italy took home five 10s and only one 8.  Bosnia only took two 10s and one 8, while third place Sweden complemented its two douze pwahs with seven 10s.  Jedward on the other hand, only took two 10s, and in fact, only scored points from 17 countries.  Azerbaijan scored points from 30 countries. So it may not necessarily be that Azerbaijan, as nice as the song was, was everyone's clear favorite.  It's just that enough people liked it enough to win.  And while Jedward has the same number of high scores as Azerbaijan, it seemed more of a love it or hate it thing.  And that was probably their downfall.

So what else did we learn from Eurovision 2011?

1.  Celine Dion has returned to the Eurovision stage again.  Oh wait, no, it's just Kati Wolf from Hungary.  Our mistake.

Seriously, it's kind of creepy.  The way she holds the mic, the hair, the voice, the lip quiver.  Kati Wolf to Vegas?

We also believe she was robbed.  She deserved higher than 22nd.  She at least deserved higher than Finland.

2.  Azerbaijan turned it out.  Blue didn't. Say what you will about Ell & Nikki.  They hit their performance.  Blue on the other hand...it was...actually kind of sad, really.

Maybe had the vocals been there, perhaps it could have done better.  Instead it just sounded like a mediocre song by a boy band that's gotten a little too old for that title.  Oh wait...

3.  Iceland perhaps had the best story that nobody knows If you watched Iceland's performance, you'd probably be thinking, "What is this on my screen?"  But the story behind the performance is perhaps one of the most sadly under-reported story of the competition.  In January, Sigurjon "Sjonni" Brink passed away mere days before he was to perform this song in the Iceland national selection finals.  So his friends did what any group would do.  They scrambled together and decided to perform the song in Sjonni's honor.  They won in Iceland and placed 20th overall in Germany.

4.  Lena's a badass.  Seriously. Lena won handily last year with "Satellite," in the second largest margin of victory ever.  She was 18 at the time.

She returned this year to compete again.  And pulled out one hell of a performance, placing 10th overall.  We look forward to seeing if she'll try to win again in the future, but even if she doesn't, "Taken By a Stranger" will remain one of the best songs from 2011.

5.  Dana International got a raw deal Finally, speaking of former winners and being robbed, Dana International at least deserved to make it out of the semi-final.  It's a shame really, that Jedward and Eric Saade made it through the second semi-final, leaving her behind.  Especially Jedward.

Seriously.  Here's the live version if there's any doubt left in your mind.

And really, that brings us to the end.  There's more videos to talk about, to be sure, but at some point we have to draw a line.  At least for now.  Who knows?  Perhaps there will be more commentary to come.  Feel free to drop a comment with your own favorite songs, thoughts, or comments.

But for now, I'll sign off from Eurovision 2011 in the only appropriate way.  With Moldova.